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august 28 - iran's reformists hope to stem shift to right

Autore: Orma
from: financial times
august 28, 2007

By Gareth Smyth in Tehran

Iran's election campaigns are limited by law to one week, but unofficial campaigning for the parliamentary poll due in March has already begun with barbed exchanges between politicians. Reformists have cried foul at conservative websites for posting a video allegedly showing the former president, Mohammad Khatami, shaking hands with women - something considered taboo by many Muslims.

The nasty edge to proceedings reflects a sense that the result next March could be close. Revived by an improved performance in December's local council elections, Iran's reformists are hopeful they can stem the rightward drift inIranian politics that led to conservative triumphs in the 2004 parliamentary and 2005 presidential elections. For their part, the conservatives are confident of holding on to their majority - albeit a reduced one - in the 290-seat parliament and maintaining their advantage as Iran moves towards the 2009 presidential election.

"The reformists' slogans about social freedoms are still for the elites," said Amir Mohebian, politicaleditor of Resalat, the conservative daily newspaper.

Some analysts see the recent cabinet reshuffle and change of leadership at the central bank as an attempt by President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad to consolidate his support ahead of the elections by pressing on with spending plans and interest rate cuts to ease financial hardship among the poor, who are his main constituency. The reformists believe, however, they can benefit from the economic problems facing the president and from divisions in theconservative camp.

With barely any political parties, Iran's elections involve political bargaining among groups seekingvarious kinds of alliances. Whereas the conservatives have so far been unable to agree a common approach to the parliamentary poll, a new centre-left bloc is within sight of a broad agreement on candidates. Rather than leading to a formal coalition, this may mean separate electoral lists containing some common candidates. The bloc brings together former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, considered a conservative pragmatist, and two leading reformists, Mr Khatami and former parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karrubi.

But reformists worry that many of their candidates will be disqualified by the Guardian Council, a constitutional body that vets hopefuls. The last parliamentary election in 2004 included mass disqualifications. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a leading member of Mosharekat, the reformist party, said his grouping would not take part in the poll if disqualifications were on the same scale as in 2004. But the reformists are also searching for candidates who are unlikely to bedisqualified. Mr Mohebian believes reformists are hampered by a failure to go beyond calls for social freedom, and by concentrating on big cities rather than towns and villages where tribal and family factors remain important.

Published: August 28 2007 03:00 | Last updated: August 28 2007 03:00

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